The Great Real Estate Standoff: Who Blinks First?

By MaryBeth McLaughlin

The leaves are changing, mortgage rates are keeping everyone on their toes, and election signs are sprouting faster than mushrooms after an October rain. Meanwhile, buyers and sellers across the Santa Cruz Mountains seem to be playing a familiar game: Who’s going to make the first move?

After years of a predominantly seller-driven market, buyers are exercising more caution, sellers are reconsidering expectations, and everyone seems to be waiting for something. Lower interest rates? Lower prices? Election results? Perhaps a crystal ball would come in handy.

But what do our local real estate numbers actually tell us?

Not All Mountain Markets Are Created Equal

I recently examined 330 residential listings recorded in our local MLS hotsheet from January 1 through October 20, 2026, covering Boulder Creek, Brookdale, Ben Lomond, Felton, Mount Hermon, Zayante, and Lompico.

Of those, 209 properties had sold, 92 were active, and 29 were contingent or pending.

The overall median selling price was $820,000, with a median of just 19 days on market. Sounds pretty healthy, doesn’t it? But averages and medians tell different stories, and looking more closely at individual communities reveals some interesting contrasts.

Boulder Creek and Brookdale: Together, these communities recorded 108 closed sales, with a median selling price of $749,000. Homes averaged 61 days on market, although the median was just 30 days.

Ben Lomond: With 39 closed sales, the median selling price was approximately $926,000. Homes averaged just 23 days on market, with a median of 11 days.

Felton, Mount Hermon, Zayante, and Lompico: Combined, these communities recorded 62 closed sales, with a median selling price of $945,000. Homes averaged 33 days on market, with a median of 13 days.

Why the differences? Property characteristics, accessibility, sunshine, location, and pricing can all influence buyer interest. A sunny, level property near town may appeal to a different buyer than a secluded retreat nestled deep in the redwoods.

And here’s another interesting discovery.

Size Matters, But Perhaps Not How You Think

We often assume smaller, more affordable homes will sell faster because they appeal to a larger pool of buyers. Our 2026 numbers suggest otherwise.

In Boulder Creek and Brookdale, one- and two-bedroom homes averaged approximately 68 days on market, compared with 54 days for three- to five-bedroom properties. In Ben Lomond, smaller homes averaged 33 days, while larger homes averaged just 19 days. The pattern continued in the Felton-area group, where smaller homes averaged 38 days compared with 30 days for larger properties.

Despite their higher purchase prices, three- to five-bedroom homes sold faster on average across all three geographic groups.

Perhaps today’s buyers are placing greater value on additional bedrooms for home offices, growing families, guests, or multigenerational living. The statistics don’t tell us why, but they certainly challenge the assumption that smaller always means easier to sell.

The Homes Still Waiting

Now consider the other side of the market. Among active listings, average days on market were approximately 72 in Boulder Creek/Brookdale, 112 in Ben Lomond, and 69 in the Felton-area group.

These are snapshots of homes still available, not their eventual selling times. Nevertheless, they illustrate the uneven pace of today’s market.

Some homes are attracting buyers quickly, while others remain available for months. In fact, 49 of the 92 active listings had a price reduction recorded as their most recent MLS change.

Pricing matters. So do condition, presentation, location, and buyer expectations.

Interest Rates, Elections, and Uncertainty

Mortgage rates add another wrinkle. Even a half-percentage-point increase can make a substantial difference in monthly payments. On a $600,000 mortgage, increasing the rate from 6.5% to 7% adds approximately $200 per month in principal and interest.

Combine that with property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and the unique responsibilities of mountain homeownership, and it’s understandable why buyers are carefully evaluating their budgets.

And with the November election upon us, uncertainty may be influencing some financial decisions. Whether elections directly affect our local sales activity is difficult to measure, but major purchases can feel daunting when the economic outlook is unclear.

Of course, life doesn’t necessarily wait for interest rates or election results. Families grow, careers change, people retire, and sometimes it’s simply time for a new chapter.

The Return of Negotiation

Remember when buyers were waiving contingencies, offering above asking price, and practically promising to name their firstborn after the seller? Those days aren’t entirely forgotten, but many buyers now have more opportunity to evaluate inspections, financing, and property conditions before committing.

For mountain properties, insurance availability, septic systems, wells, private roads, and maintenance expenses deserve particular attention. Sellers may need to approach negotiations with greater flexibility, while buyers should remember that desirable, appropriately priced homes can still attract strong interest.

Sometimes the best offer isn’t the highest one. Financing, contingencies, timing, and the likelihood of closing successfully are equally important.

The Price of Waiting

Here’s where things get interesting.

Imagine a seller with $4,000 in monthly carrying costs. Waiting three additional months for a higher offer could mean another $12,000 in expenses.

Meanwhile, a buyer waiting for a $20,000 price reduction might discover that rising mortgage rates have offset much of the anticipated savings.

Neither side is necessarily wrong to wait. Patience can be valuable, but so is understanding its potential cost. It’s a little like the dating game. Buyers keep looking for something better, sellers know their home is special, and occasionally everyone needs to adjust their expectations before finding the right match.

What About Waiting Until Spring?

As the holidays approach, some sellers are considering taking their homes off the market until spring. Traditionally, spring brings more activity, but it can also bring more competition from other listings. Fall and winter may attract fewer buyers, yet those actively shopping often have compelling reasons to move.

There’s no perfect season for every property, just as there’s no perfect formula for timing the market.

Finding Common Ground

So, who’s going to blink first? Perhaps that’s the wrong question.

Real estate isn’t supposed to be a staring contest. It’s about bringing together people whose needs, expectations, and circumstances align.

Our local statistics remind us that the Santa Cruz Mountains aren’t one uniform housing market. Property size, location, pricing, and individual circumstances all contribute to the outcome.

Buyers can’t control mortgage rates, and sellers can’t dictate market conditions. But both can remain informed, evaluate their options carefully, and recognize a reasonable opportunity when it presents itself.

And if you’ve figured out how to predict the market perfectly, please give me a call. I’ve got a few questions!

MaryBeth McLaughlin is a REALTOR® with ROOM Real Estate, specializing in residential homes and vacant land throughout the Santa Cruz Mountains.

Source: Local MLS residential hotsheet, January 1–October 20, 2026. Statistics reflect the listings included in the export; community comparisons are descriptive and not adjusted for property characteristics.